by Daniel J. Weiss.
This article was cross-posted from the Center
for American Progress.
President Barack Obama took office with four major domestic
agenda items: a plan to prevent the recession from growing worse
and launch recovery; health care reform; financial reform to avoid
future meltdowns; and clean energy and global warming legislation to
create jobs, reduce oil use, and cut pollution. The president succeeded
with the first three items. But clean energy legislation died in the
Senate after passing the House.
The Oct. 6 New Yorker has a “behind
the curtain” dissection of the rise and fall of climate legislation
in the Senate. It provides an interesting insider view of the always
messy legislative process.
Reporter Ryan Lizza details some senators’ admirable willingness to
stretch beyond their comfort zones on some energy issues to cement an
agreement that would establish declining limits on carbon dioxide and
other global warming pollutants while allowing more offshore oil
drilling and subsidies for nuclear power. He also notes the critical
miscommunications and different approaches by senators and the Obama
administration that reduced prospects for success.
Lizza gives short shrift, however, to the real reasons Senate passage
of climate legislation was impossible in 2010: the deep recession,
unified and uncompromising opposition in the Senate, and big spending by
oil, coal, and other energy interests. Let’s take a close look at these
factors.
The Great Recession took its toll
Many economists described this latest recession as the worst since
the Great Depression in the 1930s. Economists Alan Blinder and Mark
Zandi note in the July 2010 report “How
the Great Recession was Brought to an End”:
Eighteen months ago, the global
financial system was on the brink of collapse and the U.S. was suffering
its worst economic downturn since the 1930s. Real GDP was falling
at about a 6% annual rate, and monthly job losses averaged close to
750,000. Today, the financial system is operating much more normally,
real GDP is advancing at a nearly 3% pace, and job growth has resumed,
albeit at an insufficient pace. [Emphasis mine.]
The economic decline sped up just as Obama took
office. Unemployment jumped from 6.2 percent on Labor Day 2008 to 8.2 percent by
Obama’s State of the Union on Feb. 24, 2009. Nobel Laureate Paul
Krugman noted in March 2009, “At first, the current recession
didn’t hit industrial production all that hard. But the pace accelerated
dramatically last fall. At this point we’re sort of experiencing half a
Great Depression. That’s pretty bad.”
After unemployment
peaked at 10.1 percent in October 2009, the jobs picture has not
gotten significantly better. The Bureau of Labor Statistics just
announced September 2010 unemployment rate held steady at 9.6 percent. AP
reported, “The jobless rate has now topped 9.5 percent for 14
straight months, the longest stretch since the 1930s.”
These and other effects of the recession significantly added to many
Americans’ long-term economic uncertainty or fear. And this economic
environment made politicians much more susceptible to Big Oil, dirty
coal, and other special interests’ “tired dance, where folks inside this
beltway get paid a lot of money to say things that aren’t true about
public health initiatives,” as noted by EPA
Administrator Lisa Jackson. This includes skewed
studies funded by the oil industry that predicted that global
warming pollution reductions would devastate the economy.
The terrible economy and growing unemployment made it much more
difficult to pass clean energy and global warming legislation. In fact,
an analysis of the unemployment rate when fundamental environmental
protection laws were enacted since Earth Day 1970 found that the annual
unemployment rate was 6 percent or lower most of the years of enactment. (See chart below.)
This includes all of the major pollution control laws and the Endangered
Species Act. These laws established public health safeguards and
pollution reduction requirements for industry. This assessment does not
include nonregulatory laws such as public lands protection laws. Nor
does it include laws that have some pro-environment provisions as part
of a broader bill, such as the Energy Policy Act of 2005.
The first Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, Endangered Species Act, and
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (hazardous waste disposal) were
all enacted when unemployment was 6 percent or lower. Unemployment is 50
percent higher now. Only four major environmental laws were enacted
with annual unemployment over 7 percent, and none with
unemployment greater than 7.5 percent. Unemployment averaged 9.3 percent
in 2009 and 9.7 through September 2010.
In other words, the worst unemployment in nearly 30 years made the
up-hill climb to pass a global warming bill even steeper. And certainly
the special interests’ opposed to action on global warming played on
Americans’ concern about unemployment to frighten senators into opposing
global warming action.
For instance, the National
Petrochemical & Refiners Association urged strong opposition to
the American Power Act:
The draconian carbon reduction targets and
timetables in this bill would trigger destructive change in America’s
economic climate. This would add billions of dollars in energy costs for
American families and businesses, destroy the jobs of millions of
American workers, and make our nation more dependent on foreign energy
sources … If senators want to increase the loss of manufacturing jobs in
the United States and postpone the resurgence of the American economy,
then they should vote for this bill.
The American Petroleum
Institute bought a series of television, radio, and print ads threatening job killing energy taxes. Its homepage headline reads, “More jobs not more taxes.”
The heavily funded U.S.
Chamber of Commerce has also poured money into defeating climate
and clean energy action for the last several years. More recently, the
Big Coal backed Faces of
Coal front group staged rallies in protest of EPA’s proposed global warming pollution regulations with
signs reading “Coal Keeps the Lights on,” and “Coal Miners ‘Dig’ Their
Jobs.”
Whatever it is, we’re against it!
As if high unemployment weren’t enough, Senate advocates of clean
energy and global warming pollution reduction legislation had to contend
with Senate rules that allow unlimited debate.
This required bill sponsors to persuade a 60-vote “supermajority” to
end debate and pass their bill. With several Democrats unalterably opposed to
action to reduce global warming, the sponsors needed support from at
least four or five Republican senators.
Lizza describes that this was difficult to achieve because opposition
to global warming pollution reductions had grown in GOP ranks. What’s
more, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kan.) convinced his
senators that their route to the majority was a solid wall of opposition
to whatever Obama wanted to do for the nation.
Lizza reported that:
The Republican Party had grown
increasingly hostile to the science of global warming and to
cap-and-trade, associating the latter with a tax on energy and more
government regulation. Sponsoring the bill wasn’t going to help McCain
defeat an opponent to his right.
By not automatically resisting everything
connected to Obama, these senators risked angering Mitch McConnell, the
Republican leader and architect of the strategy to oppose every part of
Obama’s agenda, and the Tea Party movement, which seemed to be gaining
power every day.
Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), and Lindsey Graham
(R-S.C.) (before he dropped out), the champions of climate legislation,
could never break this wall of opposition or neutrality even among
Republican senators who had previously sponsored or voted for global
warming legislation.
This includes Sen.
John McCain (R-Ariz.), who sponsored multiple global warming pollution
reduction bills and advocated significant reductions during his 2008
presidential campaign. Sen.
Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) also co-sponsored global warming bills in
previous Congresses. Nearly four years ago, Sen.
Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) said: “It seems to me just prudent that we
recognize we have climate increase and temperature change. We have CO2
loading and we need to reduce the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.”
Yet none of these senators publicly supported action or engaged in
serious negotiations with key climate legislation crafters Kerry,
Lieberman, or Graham in 2010.
This Republican lockstep opposition to the energy bill and other
Democratic priorities is reflected in Senate floor voting patterns. Congressional
Quarterly developed a “Party Unity” score based on the
proportion of votes that “pitted a majority of one party against a
majority of the other.” Such votes reflect that each party’s position
was different, and a majority of the senators voted with their party.
The proportion of these party-unity votes have increased
significantly over the last 20 years. (See chart below.) In the 101st Congress,
serving from 1989-90, less than half the Senate votes were party-unity
votes. Before 2009, the highest proportion of Senate party-unity votes
occurred in the 104th Congress, from 1995-96. This was the so-called
“Contract with America” Congress with the first
Republican majority in both houses since 1953.
Republican leaders in 2009, however, adopted a strategy of opposing
Obama on every major legislative effort to deny him victories
that would enhance his popularity. Seventy-two percent of Senate votes,
therefore, were party unity votes. This grew to 79 percent in 2010,
which means nearly four of five votes were along party lines.
The 111th Congress also saw an increase in the proportion of
Republican senators voting with their party majority. Eighty-five
percent of Republicans voted with their party in 2009, while that
increased to 90 percent in 2010. By comparison, there were only three of 10
previous Congresses when Republicans were more unified.
Congressional
Quarterly describes the increased Senate polarization in 2010:
Almost four out of five roll call votes in
the Senate have pitted a majority of Democrats against a majority of
Republicans—the highest percentage of so-called party-unity votes seen
since Congressional Quarterly began tabulating them in 1953.
Most telling, however, is the support
accorded President Obama on the 51 Senate roll calls this year … where he
took a position. On average, Democrats supported him 95 percent of the
time, up from 92 percent in 2009. And Republicans backed away from their
50 percent average presidential support score last year to vote with
Obama just 42 percent of the time so far this election year.
Sen.
Mary Landrieu (D-La.), a conservative Democrat and no ally of global
warming legislation, noted that the Senate Republican caucus had become
more unified in opposition to Democrats. She said, “This Republican
Party’s not the one it used to be. There were moderates that would reach
out with those of us that were moderate on the other side, but that’s
not the direction they’re going in.”
The best bill money could stop
The House of Representatives passed the American Clean Energy and
Security Act on June 26, 2009. This bill was supported by some major
companies and trade associations, including the Edison
Electric Institute and the Nuclear Energy
Institute.
Fear of a consensus energy bill that had some industry support
galvanized most big oil and coal companies to invest heavily in their
efforts to oppose a Senate bill. Companies in these and other industries
thus spent records amounts of money on lobbying, campaign donations,
and other pressure tactics to defeat clean energy legislation in the
Senate. And this spending does not include millions of dollars spent on
message advertising, “astro turf” rallies (fake grass roots), and other
pressure tactics that do not require public spending reports.
Opensecrets.org found that
electric utilities and oil and gas companies spent more than $500
million in lobbying from January 2009 to June 2010, primarily to weaken
or defeat energy legislation. A Center for American Progress Action Fund
analysis found that oil companies were six of the top seven spenders on lobbying
and campaign contributions during this period, with ExxonMobil number
one.
Big Oil’s campaign contributions are heavily tilted toward
Republicans, who received
70 percent of the contributions that went to the two parties. Opensecrets.org reports:
[As] debate raged in Congress about offshore
drilling, energy independence, ‘cap-and-trade’ legislation and a shift
away from fossil-fuel energy sources … congressional candidates and
federal political committees nationwide have raked in more than $17
million from the oil and gas industry so far during the 2010 election
cycle—a number on pace to easily exceed that of the most recent midterm
election four years ago.
The recipients of the funds have remained
relatively consistent over the years, with Republicans accumulating a
majority of the industry’s campaign contributions.
The coal
industry, too, gave nearly 70 percent of its campaign cash to
Republicans.
The bigger picture
The New Yorker pulled back the curtain on the admirable but
frustratingly unsuccessful efforts of Kerry, Lieberman, Graham,
and others to achieve Senate passage of comprehensive clean energy and
global warming legislation. But Lizza pinning the blame on the White
House or senators misses the larger factors behind this huge
disappointment.
Al Gore spelled it out succinctly during an interview with Lizza
after the legislation was dead for the year. He agreed that the economy,
a unified wall of opposition in the Senate, and special interest
spending were at the heart of this outcome:
I asked Al Gore why he thought climate
legislation had failed. He cited several reasons, including Republican
partisanship, which had prevented moderates from becoming part of the
coalition in favor of the bill. The Great Recession made the effort even
more difficult, he added. “The forces wedded to the old patterns still
have enough influence that they were able to use the fear of the
economic downturn as a way of slowing the progress toward this big
transition that we have to make.
There were gale force economic, political, and special interest winds
blowing against global warming legislation in 2010 that were beyond the
influence of its champions. The question should not be “Why did they
fail?” but “How did they get so far?”
Related Links:
Come chat with New Yorker reporter Ryan Lizza about climate in the Senate
The incredible shrinking Manchin
John McCain



View full post on Grist – the latest from Grist
Incoming search terms for the article: